Archive
Rejected experiments
Every entry is a completed experiment that failed its predefined criteria. Filter by market, open any record for the full method and numbers, or take the whole set.
Showing 11–20 of 45 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E838 | Rented Bitcoin hashrate is priced at about what it earns hashrate-rental, bitcoin-mining, fair-value, compute-markets, daily | Energy & compute | Market design | 1d | 6 holdout signal days; 30 needed | KILL |
| E837 | Taking the other side of options block trades loses after costs options, block-trades, market-making, delta-hedging, markout, bitcoin, ethereum | Crypto & DeFi | Microstructure | 1h-24h | -2.80% of premium, Bitcoin holdout | KILL |
| E836 | Hedged full-range DEX liquidity earns no carry after convexity cost amm, liquidity-provision, impermanent-loss, hedged-carry, perpetual-hedge | Crypto & DeFi | Risk premium | 1d | -0.23 bp / day | KILL |
| E829 | Past power price spreads do not predict the next day's electricity, virtual-bidding, day-ahead-market, risk-premium, hub-prices | Energy & compute | Risk premium | 1d | -$0.01 / MWh | KILL |
| E828 | Leveraged volatility fund rebalancing leaves no next-day reversal vix-futures, etf-rebalancing, leveraged-etp, inverse-etp, natural-experiment, forced-flow | Equities & volatility | Forced flow | 1d | Top 3 days = 371% of profit | KILL |
| E821 | Shorting a token as large stakes end shows no detectable edge staking, unlocked-supply, scheduled-events, perpetual-futures, event-study, proof-of-stake | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 24h | -4.6 bp, interval includes zero | KILL |
| E817 | Thin election markets show no lag worth trading after costs prediction-markets, election-night, lead-lag, attention, thin-markets, event-contracts | Prediction markets | Microstructure | 15m | -0.86 c net; gross +2.14 c | KILL |
| E807 | Long-shot baseball player props are not overpriced prediction-markets, sports, player-props, pre-game, baseball | Prediction markets | Behavioural | pre-game to settlement | -2.45 c per contract | KILL |
| E804 | Mining 597 crypto futures signals finds nothing tradable data-mining, multiple-testing, cross-sectional, time-of-day, funding-rate, three-way-split | Crypto & DeFi | Data mining | 1h-24h | 0 of 597 signals survive | KILL |
| E802 | Buying a token after its treasury company's SEC filing does not pay digital-asset-treasury, sec-filings, 8-k, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 24h | +6.6 bp, same as control | KILL |