Market
Prediction markets
Event contracts on sports, elections, weather and crypto prices. The usual claims are that bettors overpay for long shots, that thin markets react late and that the same contract is priced differently on two venues.
Showing 1–8 of 8 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E817 | Thin election markets show no lag worth trading after costs prediction-markets, election-night, lead-lag, attention, thin-markets, event-contracts | Prediction markets | Microstructure | 15m | -0.86 c net; gross +2.14 c | KILL |
| E807 | Long-shot baseball player props are not overpriced prediction-markets, sports, player-props, pre-game, baseball | Prediction markets | Behavioural | pre-game to settlement | -2.45 c per contract | KILL |
| E710 | Out-of-order nested prediction markets cannot be traded prediction-markets, logical-consistency, arbitrage, order-books, scanner, nested-claims | Prediction markets | Microstructure | to resolution (within 14 days) | $0 at 1c edge, within 14 days | KILL |
| E550 | A free weather model does not beat temperature contract prices event-contracts, weather, temperature, nwp-forecast, calibration | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1d | -3.26 c per contract, 0 of 7 cities | KILL |
| E180 | Copying skilled prediction-market wallets loses 1.3 to 2.6c a share prediction-markets, copy-trading, wallet-skill, persistence, latency, sports-contracts | Prediction markets | Public intent | 5m-1d | -1.3c per share after a 5 minute delay | KILL |
| E131 | Same contract on two prediction markets: the gap closes in seconds prediction-markets, cross-venue, arbitrage, event-contracts, live-order-books, latency | Prediction markets | Microstructure | 15m | +1.6c on paper, +0.0-0.2c live | KILL |
| E080 | Backing favourites, draws and sure things in sports markets fails prediction-markets, sports, esports, soccer, favourite-longshot-bias, draw, near-certain-outcomes, look-ahead, calibration | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1h-6h | -1.0c / -0.5c esports replication | KILL |
| E013 | Prediction-market longshots are priced right, not too high prediction-markets, favourite-longshot-bias, calibration, sampling-bias, binary-contracts | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1d-14d | Priced right; -2 to -8c holdout | KILL |