Mechanism
Behavioural
Biases attributed to traders: chasing trends, overpaying for long shots, overreacting to news.
Showing 1–10 of 11 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E876 | Stocks that gap at the open do not reverse during the day stock-perpetuals, overnight-return, retail-attention, opening-auction, intraday-reversal, cross-section | Equities & volatility | Behavioural | 1d | -15.2 bp gross per day | KILL |
| E859 | No detectable lead from Korean memory-chip moves to US chip perps cross-market, read-through, stock-perpetuals, korea, semiconductors, lead-lag | Equities & volatility | Behavioural | 1h-24h | Slope +0.077, t +0.54 | KILL |
| E807 | Long-shot baseball player props are not overpriced prediction-markets, sports, player-props, pre-game, baseball | Prediction markets | Behavioural | pre-game to settlement | -2.45 c per contract | KILL |
| E770 | Fading losing traders fails its own pre-registered test copy-trading, leaderboard, counterparty, retail-flow, market-exposure, perpetual-futures, out-of-sample | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 1m-24h | Hedged +28.7 bp, shorts -17.3 bp | KILL |
| E550 | A free weather model does not beat temperature contract prices event-contracts, weather, temperature, nwp-forecast, calibration | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1d | -3.26 c per contract, 0 of 7 cities | KILL |
| E080 | Backing favourites, draws and sure things in sports markets fails prediction-markets, sports, esports, soccer, favourite-longshot-bias, draw, near-certain-outcomes, look-ahead, calibration | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1h-6h | -1.0c / -0.5c esports replication | KILL |
| E057 | Extreme funding rates do not predict reversals in perpetuals funding-rate, crowded-leverage, perpetual-futures, contrarian, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 8h-24h | -76 to +78 bp, all intervals include 0 | KILL |
| E014 | Crypto pair ratios do not revert at 1-24 hours pairs-trading, mean-reversion, relative-value, perpetuals, hourly | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 12h-24h | -6.5 bp gross, 28 bp cost | KILL |
| E013 | Prediction-market longshots are priced right, not too high prediction-markets, favourite-longshot-bias, calibration, sampling-bias, binary-contracts | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1d-14d | Priced right; -2 to -8c holdout | KILL |
| E004 | Ranking crypto coins by past return does not pay after costs momentum, reversal, cross-sectional, market-neutral, perpetuals, hourly, multiple-testing | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 4h-48h | 0 of 40 positive in all windows | KILL |