Market
Crypto & DeFi
Perpetual futures, on-chain flows, lending markets and DEX liquidity. Crypto trading folklore is full of signals that are easy to measure: funding rates, exchange deposits, token unlocks, liquidations. These are the ones that failed once costs and a control were counted.
Showing 1–10 of 28 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E904 | After a head of state's posts, crypto shows no reliable follow-through event-study, news, political-posts, bitcoin, ethereum, gold-token, continuation, unscheduled-news | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 15m-4h | +67.9 bp in 2025, -5.8 bp in 2026 | KILL |
| E886 | A patient maker resting 2% off the index loses once fills are verified market-making, liquidity-provision, adverse-selection, fill-model, thin-markets, perpetuals | Crypto & DeFi | Forced flow | 15m-1h | -14.2 bp dollar-weighted per fill | KILL |
| E878 | Protocol fee growth showed no detectable next-day edge protocol-fees, fundamentals, cross-sectional, long-short, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, daily | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 1d | +4.3 bp/day net, interval includes 0 | KILL |
| E877 | Large exchange deposits do not predict price drops on-chain-flow, exchange-deposits, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 4h-24h | -41.9 bp, same as control | KILL |
| E872 | Round-number price levels cannot be told apart from placebo levels round-numbers, stop-orders, liquidation-clusters, perpetual-futures, placebo-levels, hourly-bars | Crypto & DeFi | Forced flow | 1h-4h | -252.5 bp; round = placebo | KILL |
| E871 | Lending-rate spikes do not pay a short after costs lending-rates, constrained-shorts, spot-margin, perpetual-futures, alt-coins, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Forced flow | 4h-24h | +3.4 bp net, interval -33.7 to +37.0 | KILL |
| E837 | Taking the other side of options block trades loses after costs options, block-trades, market-making, delta-hedging, markout, bitcoin, ethereum | Crypto & DeFi | Microstructure | 1h-24h | -2.80% of premium, Bitcoin holdout | KILL |
| E836 | Hedged full-range DEX liquidity earns no carry after convexity cost amm, liquidity-provision, impermanent-loss, hedged-carry, perpetual-hedge | Crypto & DeFi | Risk premium | 1d | -0.23 bp / day | KILL |
| E821 | Shorting a token as large stakes end shows no detectable edge staking, unlocked-supply, scheduled-events, perpetual-futures, event-study, proof-of-stake | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 24h | -4.6 bp, interval includes zero | KILL |
| E804 | Mining 597 crypto futures signals finds nothing tradable data-mining, multiple-testing, cross-sectional, time-of-day, funding-rate, three-way-split | Crypto & DeFi | Data mining | 1h-24h | 0 of 597 signals survive | KILL |