Mechanism
Public intent
Someone reveals what they are about to do: a large deposit to an exchange, a company filing, a wallet’s trades, a head of state’s post. The belief is that others react late. These tests measure whether the reveal says anything about the next price move.
Showing 1–5 of 5 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E904 | After a head of state's posts, crypto shows no reliable follow-through event-study, news, political-posts, bitcoin, ethereum, gold-token, continuation, unscheduled-news | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 15m-4h | +67.9 bp in 2025, -5.8 bp in 2026 | KILL |
| E878 | Protocol fee growth showed no detectable next-day edge protocol-fees, fundamentals, cross-sectional, long-short, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, daily | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 1d | +4.3 bp/day net, interval includes 0 | KILL |
| E877 | Large exchange deposits do not predict price drops on-chain-flow, exchange-deposits, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 4h-24h | -41.9 bp, same as control | KILL |
| E802 | Buying a token after its treasury company's SEC filing does not pay digital-asset-treasury, sec-filings, 8-k, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 24h | +6.6 bp, same as control | KILL |
| E180 | Copying skilled prediction-market wallets loses 1.3 to 2.6c a share prediction-markets, copy-trading, wallet-skill, persistence, latency, sports-contracts | Prediction markets | Public intent | 5m-1d | -1.3c per share after a 5 minute delay | KILL |