Market
Crypto & DeFi
Perpetual futures, on-chain flows, lending markets and DEX liquidity. Crypto trading folklore is full of signals that are easy to measure: funding rates, exchange deposits, token unlocks, liquidations. These are the ones that failed once costs and a control were counted.
Showing 21–28 of 28 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E090 | No detectable pre-CPI/FOMC crypto drift that survives costs macro-releases, cpi, fomc, pre-event-drift, bitcoin, out-of-sample, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1h-4h | +47.3 bp in sample, +12.8 bp out | KILL |
| E057 | Extreme funding rates do not predict reversals in perpetuals funding-rate, crowded-leverage, perpetual-futures, contrarian, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 8h-24h | -76 to +78 bp, all intervals include 0 | KILL |
| E024 | Scaling crypto exposure by volatility does not beat buy-and-hold bitcoin, ethereum, volatility-targeting, risk-sizing, sharpe-ratio, buy-and-hold, bootstrap | Crypto & DeFi | Risk premium | 1d | 0 of 12 intervals exclude zero | KILL |
| E014 | Crypto pair ratios do not revert at 1-24 hours pairs-trading, mean-reversion, relative-value, perpetuals, hourly | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 12h-24h | -6.5 bp gross, 28 bp cost | KILL |
| E005 | Ranking perpetuals by funding rate collects less than costs perpetual-futures, funding-rate, cross-sectional, carry, market-neutral | Crypto & DeFi | Risk premium | 8h-24h | Funding 0.75-6.20 bp, cost 9.57+ bp | KILL |
| E004 | Ranking crypto coins by past return does not pay after costs momentum, reversal, cross-sectional, market-neutral, perpetuals, hourly, multiple-testing | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 4h-48h | 0 of 40 positive in all windows | KILL |
| E003 | Bitcoin hour-of-day and weekday patterns do not pay bitcoin, seasonality, hour-of-day, day-of-week, thursday, buy-and-hold, perpetuals | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1h-24h | Lost to holding in validation | KILL |
| E002 | Following or fading Bitcoin's last move does not pay bitcoin, momentum, reversal, time-series, trend-following, perpetuals, multiple-testing | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 1h-48h | 0 of 50 positive in all windows | KILL |