Market
Crypto & DeFi
Perpetual futures, on-chain flows, lending markets and DEX liquidity. Crypto trading folklore is full of signals that are easy to measure: funding rates, exchange deposits, token unlocks, liquidations. These are the ones that failed once costs and a control were counted.
Showing 11–20 of 28 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E802 | Buying a token after its treasury company's SEC filing does not pay digital-asset-treasury, sec-filings, 8-k, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Public intent | 24h | +6.6 bp, same as control | KILL |
| E770 | Fading losing traders fails its own pre-registered test copy-trading, leaderboard, counterparty, retail-flow, market-exposure, perpetual-futures, out-of-sample | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 1m-24h | Hedged +28.7 bp, shorts -17.3 bp | KILL |
| E600 | A zero-fee maker grid on a dollar-stablecoin pair earns nothing stablecoin, peg, market-making, maker-grid, mean-reversion, zero-fee, spot | Crypto & DeFi | Microstructure | 1m-24h | -0.02% a year on $40,000 | KILL |
| E420 | The weekend futures gap reversal does not show up in Bitcoin or Ether futures-gap, weekend, bitcoin, ethereum, perpetual-futures, calendar-effect, reversal | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1d | -15.9 bp, no reversal | KILL |
| E390 | Shorting large altcoins around token unlocks shows no detectable drift token-unlocks, altcoins, supply-events, perpetual-futures, vesting, calendar | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 24h | +52.0 / -29.1 bp, both include zero | KILL |
| E376 | London gold auction order flow leaves no trace on a gold perpetual gold, london-gold-auction, fixing, perpetual-futures, order-flow, calendar-flow | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1h | -8.8 bp net, slope t 0.00 | KILL |
| E320 | A hedged funding-rate gap between two venues does not pay funding-rate, perpetual-futures, cross-venue, hedged-carry, basis | Crypto & DeFi | Market design | 24h | -8.7 bp net, 185 bp implied | KILL |
| E230 | Fading or bidding liquidation cascades earns nothing after costs liquidation-cascade, forced-flow, microstructure, adverse-selection, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, open-interest | Crypto & DeFi | Forced flow | 15m-4h | +7 to +20 bp gross, -7 to +6 bp net | KILL |
| E224 | On-chain forced selling adds nothing beyond the price drop liquidations, lending-protocol, exploits, depegs, forced-flow, perpetual-futures, matched-controls, event-study | Crypto & DeFi | Forced flow | 1h-24h | -54.3 bp vs matched drops, 4 h | KILL |
| E190 | Fading a Korean coin premium on global perpetuals loses premium, korea, funding, perpetuals, event-study, reversion | Crypto & DeFi | Market design | 4h-24h | -130 bp at 4h, funding eats the drift | KILL |