Mechanism
Microstructure
How orders meet: quotes, spreads, fills and the gaps between venues. The belief is that small mispricings sit in the order book long enough to collect.
Showing 1–5 of 5 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E837 | Taking the other side of options block trades loses after costs options, block-trades, market-making, delta-hedging, markout, bitcoin, ethereum | Crypto & DeFi | Microstructure | 1h-24h | -2.80% of premium, Bitcoin holdout | KILL |
| E817 | Thin election markets show no lag worth trading after costs prediction-markets, election-night, lead-lag, attention, thin-markets, event-contracts | Prediction markets | Microstructure | 15m | -0.86 c net; gross +2.14 c | KILL |
| E710 | Out-of-order nested prediction markets cannot be traded prediction-markets, logical-consistency, arbitrage, order-books, scanner, nested-claims | Prediction markets | Microstructure | to resolution (within 14 days) | $0 at 1c edge, within 14 days | KILL |
| E600 | A zero-fee maker grid on a dollar-stablecoin pair earns nothing stablecoin, peg, market-making, maker-grid, mean-reversion, zero-fee, spot | Crypto & DeFi | Microstructure | 1m-24h | -0.02% a year on $40,000 | KILL |
| E131 | Same contract on two prediction markets: the gap closes in seconds prediction-markets, cross-venue, arbitrage, event-contracts, live-order-books, latency | Prediction markets | Microstructure | 15m | +1.6c on paper, +0.0-0.2c live | KILL |