Archive
Rejected experiments
Every entry is a completed experiment that failed its predefined criteria. Filter by market, open any record for the full method and numbers, or take the whole set.
Showing 21–30 of 45 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E770 | Fading losing traders fails its own pre-registered test copy-trading, leaderboard, counterparty, retail-flow, market-exposure, perpetual-futures, out-of-sample | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 1m-24h | Hedged +28.7 bp, shorts -17.3 bp | KILL |
| E710 | Out-of-order nested prediction markets cannot be traded prediction-markets, logical-consistency, arbitrage, order-books, scanner, nested-claims | Prediction markets | Microstructure | to resolution (within 14 days) | $0 at 1c edge, within 14 days | KILL |
| E600 | A zero-fee maker grid on a dollar-stablecoin pair earns nothing stablecoin, peg, market-making, maker-grid, mean-reversion, zero-fee, spot | Crypto & DeFi | Microstructure | 1m-24h | -0.02% a year on $40,000 | KILL |
| E550 | A free weather model does not beat temperature contract prices event-contracts, weather, temperature, nwp-forecast, calibration | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1d | -3.26 c per contract, 0 of 7 cities | KILL |
| E420 | The weekend futures gap reversal does not show up in Bitcoin or Ether futures-gap, weekend, bitcoin, ethereum, perpetual-futures, calendar-effect, reversal | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1d | -15.9 bp, no reversal | KILL |
| E390 | Shorting large altcoins around token unlocks shows no detectable drift token-unlocks, altcoins, supply-events, perpetual-futures, vesting, calendar | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 24h | +52.0 / -29.1 bp, both include zero | KILL |
| E380 | Leveraged-fund rebalancing leaves no detectable trace before the close leveraged-etf, closing-auction, rebalancing-flow, stock-perps, bitcoin, ethereum, intraday-momentum | Equities & volatility | Forced flow | 30m | +1.9 bp gross; control +2.9 bp | KILL |
| E376 | London gold auction order flow leaves no trace on a gold perpetual gold, london-gold-auction, fixing, perpetual-futures, order-flow, calendar-flow | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1h | -8.8 bp net, slope t 0.00 | KILL |
| E320 | A hedged funding-rate gap between two venues does not pay funding-rate, perpetual-futures, cross-venue, hedged-carry, basis | Crypto & DeFi | Market design | 24h | -8.7 bp net, 185 bp implied | KILL |
| E230 | Fading or bidding liquidation cascades earns nothing after costs liquidation-cascade, forced-flow, microstructure, adverse-selection, perpetual-futures, alt-tokens, open-interest | Crypto & DeFi | Forced flow | 15m-4h | +7 to +20 bp gross, -7 to +6 bp net | KILL |