Archive
Rejected experiments
Every entry is a completed experiment that failed its predefined criteria. Filter by market, open any record for the full method and numbers, or take the whole set.
Showing 41–45 of 45 experiments
| ID | Experiment | Market | Mechanism | Horizon | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E013 | Prediction-market longshots are priced right, not too high prediction-markets, favourite-longshot-bias, calibration, sampling-bias, binary-contracts | Prediction markets | Behavioural | 1d-14d | Priced right; -2 to -8c holdout | KILL |
| E005 | Ranking perpetuals by funding rate collects less than costs perpetual-futures, funding-rate, cross-sectional, carry, market-neutral | Crypto & DeFi | Risk premium | 8h-24h | Funding 0.75-6.20 bp, cost 9.57+ bp | KILL |
| E004 | Ranking crypto coins by past return does not pay after costs momentum, reversal, cross-sectional, market-neutral, perpetuals, hourly, multiple-testing | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 4h-48h | 0 of 40 positive in all windows | KILL |
| E003 | Bitcoin hour-of-day and weekday patterns do not pay bitcoin, seasonality, hour-of-day, day-of-week, thursday, buy-and-hold, perpetuals | Crypto & DeFi | Calendar | 1h-24h | Lost to holding in validation | KILL |
| E002 | Following or fading Bitcoin's last move does not pay bitcoin, momentum, reversal, time-series, trend-following, perpetuals, multiple-testing | Crypto & DeFi | Behavioural | 1h-48h | 0 of 50 positive in all windows | KILL |